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All eyes on the FOMC

USD: Global markets approach the main event of the week, today’s Federal Reserve rate announcement, on a generally upbeat tone. In FX, the dollar is showing only tentative signs of recovering from its recent weak momentum. An extended rebound in USD at this point strongly relies on any hawkish tilt in the Fed’s message today, but we expect instead that patience will continue to dominate the Bank’s policy message for now. The acknowledgment of better growth prospects on the back of vaccination efforts - and some evidence is already coming from a stronger data-flow – should not be accompanied by an alarming tone on inflation or any hint that a Bank of Canada-style tapering announcement is to be expected at any time. What this should mean from an FX perspective is that the dollar should not come out of the Fed meeting any stronger than it entered it, as a reiteration of a dovish message in spite of rising inflation. In G10, Canada's dollar is showing decent correlation to a curve steepening and could lead the way thanks to the widening BoC-Fed policy divergence and faster vaccination in Canada.

CAD: USD/CAD has edged marginally higher through Asian and European trade, reflecting the broader tone of the dollar rather than anything specifically CAD-negative. Mixed risk trends, given soft stocks and firmer commodities, may curb the CAD’s rise in the short run but the terms of trade impact from rising commodity prices remains a powerfully supportive feature of markets at the moment. Not too much happening in Canada today with direction likely to be driven by the FOMC announcement later this afternoon.

EUR: There aren’t any data points likely to move the market in the eurozone today, and EUR/USD will most likely be solely driven by the dollar side and primarily by the reaction to the FOMC announcement. The low-yielding nature of the EUR suggests the common currency may struggle to fully cash in on any negative dollar reaction though and, while a break above the very close 1.2100 mark should be in reach.

GBP: The pound has been quite unaffected by the political noise in the UK, remaining broadly supported against both the EUR and the dollar this week. A bearish-USD outcome of the Fed meeting today should provide an extra tailwind for cable to make another attempt at the 1.4000 level later this week.

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