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A vote in favor of recovery

USD: Vaccine news from Pfizer yesterday was greeted warmly by risk assets and saw FX markets reverting to type – giving a nudge to the already bid commodity currencies. Sentiment was subsequently weighed a little by comments from the Fed, though these were in the context of a Financial Stability Report – designed to warn of risks. Where does that leave us? Certainly, there is a ray of hope from the vaccine and investors will have a little more confidence that we are moving into an early stage recovery cycle rather than teetering on the precipice of another double dip. As long as US yield curve steepening does not get out of hand and as long as Fed policy expectations remain anchored, we would expect investors to sell dollar rallies and look for opportunities in higher growth opportunities. The US data calendar is light today and it looks as though FX markets want to consolidate after some big moves.

CAD: The jobs market kept showing positive signs in Canada with the unemployment rate falling below the 9% mark and 86k jobs added in October based on last week’s report. This should keep expectations for more stimulus by the Bank of Canada low after the Bank announced last week that bond purchases will shift to longer maturities. The positive job growth signs coupled with the Pfizer announcement yesterday should keep the CAD rally alive and easily push USD/CAD below the 1.3000 mark.

EUR: The euro reversed from a high of 1.1920 yesterday but should stay supported. Unloved sectors of the investment universe received a boost yesterday and arguably you could put Europe into that category – priced to near recession from broadening lockdowns. We should not get carried away, but a rebound in global activity in 2021 on a Biden/vaccine ticket should be EUR/USD positive and we suspect it can press and possibly break 1.20 before the year is out. Today should also see some welcome progress of the EU Recovery Fund in Brussels, which can drag EUR/USD back to the 1.1920 area.

GBP: The Pound is trading on a high note and may well be enjoying the news that the House of Lord has rejected the government’s Internal Markets Bill. That may ease the path to a trade deal with the EU – possibly this week. Today’s UK Sep jobs data looks mixed, unemployment rising to 4.8% from 4.5% as expected. Above 1.3180/3200, Cable could enjoy a strong advance to 1.33+.

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