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A vision of Biden?

USD: That Tuesday’s first presidential debate was chaotic is clear. What also seems to be clear, if betting odds are to be believed, is that President Trump missed an opportunity to close Joe Biden’s lead – quite the reverse in fact. In FX markets, signs of a shift towards Biden saw the JPY options volatility suggesting fears of a contested election were abating and generally coinciding with a weaker dollar and a more pro-risk stance in markets. This assessment of what a post-Trump world could mean for financial markets was clouded yesterday by news that a fourth US stimulus plan could be a going concern after all. The mood today will be driven by the should also be the release of the Sep. manufacturing PMIs around the world (including the US), where manufacturing seems to remain a bright spot.

CAD: The Canadian September Markit PMI will give an early look at how well business confidence is holding up amid the latest uptick in virus counts. The August PMI reading was strong at 55.1 – the highest in 2 years. USD/CAD has rejected resistance at 1.3399 more sternly after testing this level for 5 straight trading days. Initial support is located at 1.3272.

EUR: EUR/USD has come back bid. The ECB clearly doesn’t like EUR strength and progress of the EU Recovery Fund (EU summit today) will still be a challenge this month. But we think $ weakness and the global risk environment will win out. Progress on US stimulus could be enough to take EUR/USD through 1.1750/60 to 1.1810.

GBP: Has been holding onto recent gains (and helping European FX in general). Expect more volatility today and tomorrow as Brexit negotiations go down to the wire. A Cable move above 1.2985/3010 certainly removes the fragile tone

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