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A sad Thanksgiving for the dollar

USD: US financial markets are closed today for the Thanksgiving holiday and this may cause most G10 currencies to trade in tighter ranges. There are no data releases in the US until Monday, and markets will keep an eye during the Thanksgiving holiday on developments on the political and pandemic fronts. The latter appears particularly concerning as major US cities are experiencing large spikes in cases and may fuel further speculation that President-elect Biden will opt for tougher restrictions once he takes office. For now, the stock rally has paused, but global risk appetite remains quite upbeat when looking at FX markets, with a 5-day rally in oil playing a big role.

CAD: The CAD continues to track US stock market moves more closely than crude oil prices in the short run but the broader move up in commodity prices is supporting Canada’s terms of trade and adds some fundamental underpinning to the CAD story at the moment. The CAD will remain firm while the pro-risk mood helps keep commodity prices supported

EUR: The EUR has “survived” the slew of grim data at the start of the week and some USD weakness has led EUR/USD back above the 1.1900 handle. Today, all eyes will be on the ECB’s Oct. meeting minutes with investors searching for hints on the size and shape of the new stimulus measures set to be deployed in December. With an overall quiet environment due to the US holiday and no other key releases, the minutes should be the main EUR driver today.

GBP: Today, the Government will provide details about virus containment measures as England is set to leave lockdown on 2 December. London may be spared tougher restrictions, which could provide some floor to GBP as we await more Brexit-related news. Meanwhile, the tone of negotiations has grown more confrontational after France accused the UK of dragging its feet on a trade deal.

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