Sticky Registration Sticky Customer Support

Weekly Currency Update

Get access to our expert weekly market analysis and discover and track your currency pair using our exchange rate tools.

Very Little Room for Large CAD Appreciation

Very Little Room for Large CAD Appreciation

  • The Canadian dollar is trading on the back foot to start the week owing to weak jobs data in Canada and a stronger-than-expected US non-farm payroll report for July. Since the beginning of the month, the CAD has lost more than 1.2 percent of its value against the US dollar. Overall, the Canadian numbers were dismal: there were 30.6k fewer employment, both full-time and part-time positions were lost, total hours worked decreased by a sizable 0.5 percent in the month, signaling a slow start to Q3 GDP growth, and wage growth was lower than anticipated at 5.4 percent y/y. In addition, the US jobs report revealed higher-than-expected pay growth and stronger-than-expected job gains, which helped support market expectations for a 75bps increase at the September FOMC meeting. In some ways, weaker stocks added to the pressure on the CAD.

Very little room for CAD appreciation

  • Despite the differences between these two reports, it is unclear if the possibility of a 75 bps increase by the Bank of Canada has materially decreased. Slower wage growth may be encouraging for the Bank as they fight inflation, and a few disappointing jobs reports may only slightly diminish their overall assessment of "very, very tight" labor markets (especially as given the unemployment rate dipped to 4.9 percent). The more significant data release in terms of the forecast for BoC policy is inflation (coming on August 16). Fair value models continue to suggest upside risks for spot and our week ahead range estimator echoes a perspective. In the immediate term, risks may lean more toward turbulent range trading due to the CAD's softening and weakening correlations with stocks and commodities, which may limit USD/CAD advances to the mid to high 1.29 area. Right now, the only thing we can say with any degree of clarity is that there is very little room for large CAD appreciation.

The week ahead

  • This week, no significant central bank activities or data releases are planned for Canada. The US data run is also somewhat scant, and Wednesday's July CPI report will be the market's primary concern. Following last week's staggering US employment figures, a hot inflation data will raise market expectations for a 75 basis point Fed rate in September. The preliminary August University of Michigan sentiment and inflation predictions survey wraps up the week on Thursday with the release of the PPI data. Daly, Kashkari, and Evans are among the Fed speakers.

This week’s trading range

  • For the week ahead the USD will remain well-supported on dips to the low/mid 1.28s and expect the 1.2940 area on the topside.

Currency Chart

Get access to our market experts and sign up to receive the latest updates on any currency with our real-time exchange rate reports.

Sign up to receive the latest market news from our experts.

Daily Currency Updates
Daily Market Analysis
Get daily intelligence and currency reports directly to your inbox.
Weekly FX Technical Analysis
Weekly Technical Analysis
Get our weekly technical analysis providing valuable insights.
Monthly Currency Outlook
Monthly Currency Outlook
Receive our monthly currency report and help improve your forecasts.

By entering your email address you agree to the MTFX Terms Of Use and MTFX Privacy Policy and agree and agree to receive sales and marketing communications. Unsubscribe at anytime.

FAQs

Individuals and businesses who need to send money in foreign currency internationally can use MTFX’s services. The beneficiary of the transfer must have a bank account for the funds to be paid into. Personal clients usually use our services to transfer money between their own accounts in two different countries. Business clients usually use our services to transfer funds to suppliers, fund international operations, or repatriate overseas earnings.
MTFX offers currency exchange rates that are 2-5% better than those offered by the banks. Personal clients usually save hundreds of dollars per transfer and for larger transfers, the savings can run into the thousands. We also offer excellent customer service, dedicated currency specialists, and a 24/7 online platform with best-in-class technology that allows you to complete transfers from any device virtually anywhere in the world. Business customers save with better currency exchange rates and proven solutions geared towards managing and mitigating foreign exchange risk. Our solutions include forward contracts, market orders, rate alert services, and much more - all backed by great technology and great people.
Funds can be transferred via wire transfer, Electronic Funds Transfer (EFT), or ACH payment services. MTFX maintains bank accounts in all major currencies with highly-rated banks. Our banking infrastructure ensures that you can transfer funds to us quickly and securely.
Our global network of banking partners allows us to get funds to virtually anywhere in the world quickly and efficiently. Most wire transfers from MTFX will be received by your beneficiary within 24-48 hours. MTFX also offers same-day transfers that are almost instantaneous, as well as low-cost in-country payment services for your less urgent transfers. For further information please speak to one of our currency specialists.