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Daily Currency Update

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USD & CAD consolidating ahead of tomorrow’s employment data

USD - US Dollar

FX markets have moved into consolidation mode ahead of tomorrow's key September NFP release. Consensus is for a 500k increase in the jobs data - a consensus supported by a strong ADP data release yesterday. Today's session starts on a slightly more positive footing, where reports that Republicans in the Senate will support at least a temporary increase in the US debt ceiling have allayed fears of financial market disruption later this month. This has played out in the yields on US T-Bills expiring October 28th dropping from 13bp to 5bp over the last 24 hours.

While a better risk environment might normally be seen as a mildly negative for the dollar, news of at least a temporary resolution on the debt ceiling will remove one of the factors keeping a lid on US Treasury yields. On the subject of inflation, lookout today for a joint conference on inflation dynamics held by the Cleveland Fed and the ECB. Expect DXY to stay bid near major resistance at 94.50/70. The biggest risk to a firmer DXY probably comes from any substantial re-assessment of inflation risk from the ECB.

CAD - Canadian Dollar

With crude oil prices nearing yearly highs, the loonie has benefitted from a solid outperformance over the past two weeks. This trend should continue in the short term with OPEC+ leaving its supply plans unchanged. Continued upward pressure on natural gas prices should result in some substitution into oil for power generation which should keep the CAD supported on the back of crude prices in contrast to its other FX peers against the weak risk backdrop. Domestically, the loonie will take direction from tomorrow’s employment data.

EUR - Euro

Europe has been on the receiving end of the natural gas spike and local equity markets. One of the top financial stories today, however, is that the ECB is working on a new scheme to ensure that there is no friction when its emergency PEPP scheme ends in March. That should be a reminder as to where the ECB's heart lies and that it will not be rushing into removing monetary accommodation to fight the inflation spike.

In addition to ECB speakers today we will see the ECB minutes from the September meeting. This was the meeting that saw the 'recalibration' of policy and one that left the EUR vulnerable to the stronger dollar. These minutes are typically well-managed, so do not expect too much dissent. 1.1500 looks like the obvious target and very strong support for EUR/USD, which we expect to be tested tomorrow. 1.1560/80 may cap the upside today - barring any ECB surprises.

GBP - British Pound

The GBP remains well supported largely on the view that the BoE will be more responsive to inflation than the ECB. Currently, the market prices are about 5bp of tightening at the November BoE meeting and 25bp by the February meeting next year. We think that is too aggressive, but the BoE has yet to disavow the market of these expectations. Perhaps the BoE is welcoming the benefits of a stronger GBP in insulating against higher energy prices?

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