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Daily Currency Update

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US Payrolls to dominate markets today

USD: It certainly seems that the market will have heightened sensitivity to the number since the Fed will be using NFP in its benchmarking of whether 'substantial progress' has been achieved in the recovery to justify tapering asset purchases. Consensus for today's June NFP has crept up to 720k today from 600k on Monday, with a slightly firmer than expected ADP figure helping that adjustment - even if the relationship between ADP and NFP is at best tenuous.

CAD: Economists forecast a deterioration in the trade balance to roughly zero (+C$0.1bn) in May, after a return to a small surplus position in April at +C$0.6bn (from a C$1.35bn deficit in March). After last month saw both imports and exports decline, the latter is projected to see a smaller bounce back in May compared to a 1% expected increase for imports. Today the loonie will take direction from the US NFP with support located at 1.2403 and resistance located at 1.2502.

EUR: Today's NFP data will probably play a big role in determining whether EUR/USD moves back into a summer range - e.g. a soft NFP number today firming up the 1.1835/45 as the low end of the range for the summer - or sees broad dollar gains extend. The latter would make the case for a retest of the March low at 1.1700. Some customers we speak to see EUR/USD as good value down here ahead of what should be a pick-up in hard Eurozone activity data through 3Q21 and rising inflation - the latter questioning the ECB's super-dovish settings at its next meeting September 9th. Thus a EUR/USD decline to 1.1700 is not a given. Also, today expect large option expiries to make their mark at 16CET. We see some large option expiries all the way from 1.1750 to 1.1950 today.

GBP: GBP's recent bout of out-performance faltered yesterday as BoE Governor Bailey said that the BoE should not over-react to the inflation spike. Unlike US interest rate futures markets, GBP markets is in the process of handing back the hawkish pricing seen in late June. Indeed, the market had been optimistic in pricing the first 10bp BoE rate hike in May 22. GBP looks a little vulnerable to a further BoE re-pricing short term.

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