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US Inflation may provide support to the dollar | MTFX

USD: The week in FX has started along the lines of the past one, with the dollar marginally weaker against commodity currencies. US Treasuries also started the week weaker, however, the key test for bonds is due today, as the release of US CPI numbers for the month of March is widely expected to show another jump in inflation. Consensus forecasts suggest headline inflation to rise 0.5% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year. Such figures should further fuel the narrative that the US economy is starting to overheat and will likely add to concerns that the Federal Reserve's firmly dovish message will be increasingly challenged. Meanwhile, the US Treasury's FX Report should be published on Thursday and may tag Taiwan as a manipulator – but not China – and possibly raise the threshold for the three criteria to receive the manipulator tag, according to some media reports.

CAD:  The loonie weakened marginally this morning and is trading in the low 1.26 levels to start the North American session.  Ranges are limited and the CAD tone has likely soured somewhat with the slippage in stocks. However, Friday’s stellar jobs data should not be far from investors’ minds and while most expect some of the jump in jobs to be unwound this month as a result of Ontario’s lockdown.  That said, the trend in jobs and progress on access to vaccines should provide policy makers with enough confidence in the outlook to at least signal a move towards tapering asset purchases at the April 21st policy decision.

EUR: The US inflation report is set to be the main driver for the EUR/USD today and may cause the pair to test last week’s 1.1860 lows. A usually important data point in the eurozone – the German ZEW – should have limited impact today as a positive re-rating of the eurozone recovery outlook appears almost solely reliant on material advancements on the vaccination rollout in the EU and the unlocking of the EU Recovery Fund.

GBP: We were not at all surprised to see sterling's rebound yesterday after last week’s correction: the storm that hit the AstraZeneca vaccine has not derailed the UK vaccination plans, leaving prospects of a sharp recovery in the country intact. Also, GBP/USD appeared meaningfully undervalued at the end of last week. Most expect the pound to show relatively good resilience to any USD rally today.

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