US dollar shines and is posting fresh highs against the CAD
USD - US Dollar
Yesterday’s Fed minutes failed to resolve the market uncertainty around the timing for starting tapering, as members appeared split between this fall and early next year. The assessment of how much “progress” has been made by the US economy was not too upbeat – although the meeting was held before the strong July jobs data – with the view that “substantial further progress” was still needed and widespread concern about a potential slowdown caused by the Delta-variant spread. All in all, while still signalling the Fed is indeed inching towards tapering, the tone in the minutes was not more hawkish than what was expressed in the post-July-payrolls Fedspeak. In the short term, swings in risk sentiment continue to be the most important driver of dollar strength and G10 FX moves. Today, we’ll see whether jobless claims have continued to slow and whether the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook index has inched higher in August, but data-driven moves in FX should be limited.
CAD - Canadian Dollar
The CAD has weakened again this morning with the spot now trading at 1.274 as the bleeding continues. oil broke lower by 3.7% overnight and has been a key driver for the latest downside momentum for the loonie. A stronger US dollar and souring risk tones of course have added further pressure on the loonie. US futures are down by nearly 1% now while the greenback is posting fresh highs against commodity currencies, amplifying the sour risk mood today. This could be a perfect storm for the CAD to move lower over the coming days.
EUR - Euro
The move-in EUR/USD below 1.1700 appeared to be a matter of when rather than if considering the deterioration in global sentiment and the lack of positive drivers for the euro. The next key support for the pair should be at the 1.1600 November lows. At this stage, more consolidation in the USD bullish trend could soon see markets look to 1.1500 as the next pivotal level in EUR/USD.
GBP - British Pound
The UK's recently intense data flow is taking a break today, as markets await retail sales data tomorrow. Below-consensus inflation numbers had few implications for the Bank of England policy stance, and the pound has been one of the most resilient currencies to USD appreciation after the inflation report. GBP could get another shot in the arm by the end of the week if retail sales print higher than expected.
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