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Daily Currency Update

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Risks to the dollar remain on the downside with job numbers out tomorrow

USD: DXY should stay close to the 90.00 level today, with no major moves ahead of tomorrow's US labour market report. As long as the upcoming US labour data doesn’t surprise materially to the upside, imminent Federal Reserve tightening expectations should remain at bay and allow for a gradual USD weakness. Today, market consensus suggests a weak ADP report underscoring the above rationale.

CAD: After failing to hold gains to fresh, six-year highs against the USD earlier this week, the CAD is finding some support against the USD’s general advance on the back of firm oil prices. Crude prices have responded positively to upbeat signals from producers regarding strengthening global demand. Canadian GDP showed decent growth through Q1 despite Covid lockdowns. Most remain optimistic on the outlook of the CAD but a catalyst is required to move the currency out of its current range.

EUR: Little suggests that EUR/USD should move meaningfully away from the 1.2200 level today. It is a quiet day on the Eurozone data front, with final May PMIs not impacting the euro. Today’s services and composite PMIs may have a moderate impact on the currency, but markets are now likely in wait-and-see mode ahead of the ECB’s meeting next week.

GBP: After concerns that the spreading Indian Covid-19 variant may delay the 21st June lockdown easing, sterling reversed some of its prior losses as PM Boris Johnson suggested that the data doesn’t point to delaying of the easing measures. While the eventual delay cannot still be ruled out, any pushback should be just a matter of weeks given the fast vaccination process underway. The eventual impact on the economy should be limited, in turn limiting the scope for a more pronounced downside to GBP in such a scenario.

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