Markets remain unsettled while struggling to find direction
USD - US Dollar
FX markets are struggling to find new themes this morning. One of those is the normalization of Fed monetary policy and the more public discussion over the start of Fed tapering expected later this month at Jackson Hole. A strong set of US jobs reports did seem to have this theme on cruise control, yet Friday's very soft August US consumer confidence data and the pick-up in US virus cases is starting to unsettle the consensus. More insights into that US consumer come with today's US July retail sales data which may print below consensus. Such an outcome could keep the US money market rates and bond yields subdued, with the dollar trading well inside recent ranges. Expect DXY to trade a tight 92.50-93.00 range today.
CAD - Canadian Dollar
Not a wonderful day for the CAD yesterday which extended to the 1.2590/1.2605 this morning, despite the equity markets closing higher. The CAD continues to underperform dragged down by softer crude and soft global risk appetite. The CAD does have more domestic data to focus on this week—CPI mid-week and Retail Sales Friday—but we rather think the CAD will continue to track a holding pattern in a broad range between the upper 1.24s and upper 1.26s for now.
EUR - Euro
EUR/USD remains in tight ranges and it will be interesting to see whether a soft US retail sales figure, should one be seen, will drive it back to the 1.1800/1810 area again. In Europe, we get to see the first revision to 2Q21 Eurozone GDP data today. Euro levels are the same as yesterday and we expect a dull trading session today.
GBP - British Pound
GBP has slipped into range trading after failing to hold onto gains last week. Today's June employment data understandably has delivered little fresh news with the market instead of waiting for this autumn to see the end of furlough schemes and how much unemployment rises then.
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