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Jobs recovery to keep CAD momentum going

USD: Tantalizing prospect of stimulus keeps risk afloat. The re-opening of Chinese markets after a weeklong holiday has contributed to positive sentiment, where the PBOC fixed USD/CNY about 0.5% lower and Chinese equities opened 2-3% higher. The tantalizing prospect of a fourth US stimulus package also continues to be dangled in front of markets and it wouldn’t be a surprise for this state of affairs to continue into Nov 3rd – the White House wanting to keep equities supported, while the Democrats not wanting to rule anything out, but reluctant to give the White House a win. We’d say that markets look positioned for a ‘Blue Wave’ (Democrat clean sweep).

CAD: Jobs recovery to keep CAD momentum going. The Canadian jobs market has broadly followed the US in its recovery. Accordingly, investors are expecting hiring in Canada to have slowed somewhat in September, in line with last week’s US NFP. We see some room for a read above the 150k consensus, but anyway a further contraction in the unemployment rate should be enough to keep expectations around the economic recovery in Canada intact. In turn, CAD should be able to keep the current positive momentum going (it is the best G10 performer in the week). On a good day for risk, USD/CAD could press the 1.3130/50 area.

EUR: The euro continues to defy the dovish commentary of the ECB, with the market perhaps starting to see these comments merely as verbal intervention – although the ECB clearly does have a disinflation problem. The latest fusillade of ECB commentary came from the ECB minutes, where the concern seemed to be about the pace, rather than the levels. For reference the ECB’s nominal trade weighted Euro (against 19 partners) is up 4.2% YoY. If it stays at these levels into February that YoY change could push up to 7% (in line with some of the strongest YoY changes over the last decade). Perhaps the ECB will be hoping that the CNY plays catch-up with EUR strength.

GBP: Brexit choreography. One hears the word ‘choreography’ quite frequently with regard to Brexit – e.g. how might Downing Street might extricate itself from next week’s self-imposed deadline? GBP could still be fragile, however. Look out for Haldane at 1130 CET.

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