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Inflation data in Canada and U.S. to drive direction this morning

USD - US Dollar

Based on the price action yesterday and overnight, it looks like we’ll see a more stable market environment this week. In FX, we have seen major currencies like the USD, EUR, GBP and JPY struggling to find direction amid a lack of clear market catalysts. Oil-sensitive currencies including CAD have been mostly supported as crude prices inch higher.

The main event in markets today will be the release of August’s inflation numbers in the US. Consensus suggests a marginal reduction both in year-on-year headline inflation from 5.4% to 5.3% and in the core rate from 4.3% to 4.2%. The question is to what extent these figures will be able to drive expectations around the timing and pace of the Fed’s tapering. If the early signals of market optimism this morning are to be trusted, we could see some gentle pressure on the dollar emerging during the day.

CAD - Canadian Dollar

The recent random price action continues, with the loonie higher yesterday as risk rallied and the USD came under pressure in the afternoon. Today we get CPI for both Canada and the U.S., which will hopefully provide some inspiration. Macklem expressed his concerns over Inflation last week, as something that will be closely monitored, therefore, a higher than forecast print will see CAD higher and will likely take funds down towards 1.2570/80 support.

EUR - Euro

We expect EUR/USD to keep trading in a narrow range today, given there is no market-moving data in the eurozone as well as no scheduled ECB speakers until tomorrow. We would not expect any EUR/USD rally to extend beyond 1.1850 today.

GBP - British Pound

The pound has continued its rangebound trading this morning after jobs data came in very close to market expectations, with the July unemployment rate inching lower to 4.6% and weekly earnings falling to 8.3%. While the domestic recovery story in the UK still appears to be by and large supportive of GBP, markets are still showing some reluctance that the Bank of England will be able to stick to its upbeat view on the economic outlook, which may be limiting GBP upside in the short term.

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