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Daily Currency Update

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Greenback’s Decline Becoming More Pronounced

USD: Despite the meaningful spike in US treasury yields, most of the G10 Currencies remain fairly stable and recorded gains vs USD. As long as the rise in US treasury yields and the curve steeping is driven by the ‘’good’’ economic factors and the perception of the Fed remaining behind the curve (tolerating the CPI overshot), the rise in yields is not detrimental for risk assets and doesn’t benefit USD. The inflation/ growth driven rise in US treasury yields should keep USD on the back foot vs the G10 FX space in coming weeks.

CAD: Is putting the USD under incremental pressure. Firm crude prices and the generally bullish trend higher in commodity prices are combining to drive USD lower and we think that more CAD gains are not an unreasonable assumption. BoC Governor Macklem’s comments provided no new insight into the economic or policy outlook; to a large extent, his remarks followed the cautious tone of his Fed counterpart, stressing that the economy would require “considerable” monetary support for some time to come.

EUR: As the rise in US treasury yields is driven by economic (and not monetary) factors, the euro, a currency of a large open economy, benefits vs USD. EUR/USD to grind towards 1.22 in coming days. With the confidence in global recovery/reflation dynamics growing.

GBP: Continues to stand out in the G10 FX space, with the vaccine dividend making it the outperformer among the major currencies. Speculation about the extension of the Covid-19 support/fiscal measures are also GBP positive.

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