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USD: The US currency, everyone else’s problem

The trade weighted dollar has bounced around 1% off its lows this week. The move looks corrective and a big driver of that has been the two cent sell-off in EUR/USD. Following today’s sourced article in the FT, it now seems clear that the strong Euro has firmly landed on the ECB’s radar. This suggests we’ll see a period of FX consolidation ahead of next week’s ECB meeting. However, news that a major trading partner of the US is having to deal with a stronger currency should not prove too much of a challenge to the over-riding dollar bear trend. After all, one of the side-effects of the weaker dollar is to export loose Fed policy around the world – effectively providing more global monetary stimulus.

Economists expect a material deterioration in the goods trade balance in July and pencil in a –C$4.7bn balance from –C$3.2bn in June. Massive increases again on the autos trade side should drive overall trade flows higher and be the main source of the deterioration in the balance. Higher oil prices in the month will provide some offset, but the magnitude of broader flows should overwhelm the impact. The services trade balance has improved greatly during the pandemic on lower travel services (where Canada usually runs a deficit), though June did see some deterioration to a balance of –C$0.7bn. Technically, initial resistance comes in at 1.3064, followed by 1.3105, while support stands at 1.3029 and 1.2952.

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