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The bad mix helping the bad dollar

USD: Continues to gain as concerns about rising Covid-19 cases inducing a slowdown in the global economic recovery weigh on stock markets turn benefiting the oversold dollar. The latest comments from Fed officials about the need for more US fiscal stimulus (which looks unlikely any time soon) added further fuel to the fire, while the risk around the Nov US Presidential election were underscored by President Trump’s comments where he did not pre-commit to a peaceful transition of power should he lose the November ballot (focusing on the legitimacy of mail-in voting). Downgrades to growth expectations, the lack if imminent fiscal stimulus and US election uncertainty is not the mix under which other FX would thrive. Near-term, USD is likely to outperform.

CAD: In the Throne Speech, the Trudeau government vowed “to do whatever it takes” to help the economy during the pandemic, including an initiative to create more than 1mn jobs & extending the wage subsidy program (CEWS). The speech also outlined plans to “to tax extreme wealth inequality, including [...] addressing corporate tax avoidance by digital giants.” Initial resistance stands at 1.3399, followed by 1.3460, while support stands at 1.3343 and 1.3272.

EUR: EUR/USD continues to decline as the re-rating of global growth expectations is weighing on global trade levered EUR. Equity futures pointing to a further decline should keep the euro on the back foot today. German IFO is unlikely to change the trend today.

GBP: Chancellor Sunak is set to unveil a new set of measures to support the Covid-19 hit economy today. These should include wage subsides (replacing the furlough scheme) and extension of the loan scheme. GBP to continue exhibiting lower sensitivity to global factors, with Brexit related risks being the key currency driver.

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