USD: The dollar is slightly firmer after the FOMC meeting, but the move looks to be a function of positioning or misplaced market expectations rather than anything to be taken from the FOMC statement or projections. The main move in the US yield curve was at the long end and right now 30-year Treasury yields are only up 2bp post Fed. As long as market expectations of an economic rebound hold (second wave lockdowns and the fiscal response will have a say here), negative real yields will keep the dollar bear trend intact. We continue to expect continued USD weakness in the short term.
CAD: The CAD moved from a test of the 1.32 mark late last night to now track a ~0.2% gain for the day that leaves it under-performing all of its major currency peers as it continues to trade in the narrow channel it has been in over the past week or so and we expect much of the same today. The recent increase in COVID-19 cases in Ontario is worth monitoring for the re-imposition of virus restrictions.
EUR: Stretched positioning can always create risks for FX pairs and certainly that is the case in EUR/USD right now. Yet EUR/USD has rallied for good reason this summer and we think 1.1700 should prove the lower end of the near-term trading range.
GBP: Rallied late yesterday seemingly on news that the PM Johnson had agreed a deal with Tory rebels, giving parliament a veto over some measures of the Internal Market bill before implementation. We think recent GBP gains may well be reversed. GBP may also face headwinds from today’s BoE meeting where renewed caution may provide hints to more stimulus in November.
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