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Canadian dollar update – Tuesday July 14, 2020. Should you be worried?

FX & market recap:

Asia and European equity markets followed Wall Street and recorded small losses. Tesla’s $300 price swing sparked talk of a tech bubble and still left Elon Musk’s company worth more than Volkswagen, Daimler, Honda, Ferrari, BMW, and General Motors combined. Those six manufactures sold a total of 28.5 million cars in 2019. Tesla can’t even deliver 400,000. TSLA: Nasdaq will soon be to autos what Blackberry is to smartphones.

If you are not sick of hearing about COVID-19, you are probably sick with COVID-19. Some American states, including California, are walking back measures that reopened the economy. Businesses that had been allowed to open are being ordered to close.

US inflation data is on tap. The forecast is for June CPI to rise 0.5% m/m compared to May’s -0.1% m/m dip. US equity futures are slightly higher even after JPMorgan reported a more than 50% drop in Q2 profit. It is hard to see the DJIA staying positive today.

Canadian dollar highlights:

USD/CAD tracked EUR/USD and S&P 500 moves, and it is trading in the middle of its 1.3601-1.3644 overnight range. Modestly lower oil prices and the current whiff of risk aversion sentiment are underpinning prices.

Euro highlights:

EUR/USD climbed on mixed to positive economic reports, rising from 1.1326 to 1.1367 in early NY trading. German June CPI at 0.6% m/m was as expected and unchanged from May. The German and Eurozone ZEW Surveys were in line with expectations. Traders are cautious and waiting for the ECB on Thursday.

British pound highlights:

GBP/USD extended yesterday’s fall, dropping from 1.2560 at the close to 1.2508. UK GDP rose 1.8% in May, well below the 5.0% forecast, crushing hopes for a more robust post-COVID-19 economic rebound. The intraday technicals are bearish below 1.2560, looking for a move below 1.2490 to extend losses to 1.2460.

Asia Pacific highlights:

AUD/USD and NZD/USD traded higher on the back of improving China trade data. Both currency pairs remain in their well-defined ranges.

Currency Chart

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