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Canadian dollar update – Monday August 31, 2020. USD continues to struggle.

FX & market recap:

The feared August seasonal tendencies failed to materialize, and the US dollar has staggered under the one‐two punch of Powell's speech and Abe's resignation. The race to replace Abe is scheduled for September 14, with Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga being tipped as the leading candidate. Chinese PMIs today showed the growth recovery on track, and USD/CNY is testing the lows of the year.

Week ahead:

The US August payrolls report (Friday) is the highlight of the week. Most are expecting a consensus‐beating 2 million rise in headline payrolls with the unemployment rate dipping to 10.0%. Before that is the usual ADP employment appetizer (Wednesday), plus PMIs from across the world, including the US ISM reports. The Canadian employment report is also coming up this week. A 250K employment gain in the August employment number is expected as the recovery continues. The unemployment rate should consequently fall from 10.9% to 10.0%.

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