USD: FX markets stabilized overnight following the sell-off in currencies yesterday and USD gains across the board. With Covid-19 cases rising and prospects of new lockdown measures (albeit likely less severe and more targeted than in spring), the less upbeat global economic outlook for 4Q20 and 1Q21 is translating into limited upside potential for the greenback. Coupled with the Nov US Presidential elections, the outlook for risk assets is likely to be tricky for coming weeks and months, though we don’t see scope for pronounced and long-last USD gains as (a) USD liquidity should not be an issue vs the spring this year (b) the Fed would likely step in should risk sentiment deteriorate further.
CAD: The selloff in equities and associated decrease in risk appetite finally caught up with the loonie and created a corrective momentum in USD/CAD. With prices taking out initial daily resistance at 1.3272 in response, the focus now shifts up to 1.3354 and 1.3399 as the next resistance levels to watch. Support is located at 1.3272 and 1.3257.
EUR: Downside risks to global growth weighing on EUR. With the EZ being a large open economy levered to global growth, Covid-19 related uncertainty and its impact on global growth outlook does not bode well for EUR/USD. But with equity markets tentatively stabilizing, this suggests EUR/USD staying around the 1.1750 level today.
GBP: Weathered the storm yesterday largely intact and stayed flat vs EUR given the idiosyncratic nature behind the currency’s price action in recent months (UK-EU trade negotiations uncertainty). What will matter more for GBP price action is the BOE's Bailey speech today and any potential hints at the odds of negative interest rates.
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